Given adequate capital base (CY16 CAR of 14.2%), relentless focus on loan quality and limited exposure to troubled segments, we expect loan growth to stay upbeat registering ~12% over the next 3Yrs keeping loan infection ratio under ~3%.
Changes in BAHL investment concentration was visible by 3QCY16 onwards, where the bank increased its concentration of low yielding treasury bills in response to maturing and absence of newer PIB issuance. With 2/3 of bank contractual maturities falling under 2yrs, pressure on investment yield cannot be ruled out.
Management focus to keep the deposit mobilisation growth concentrated on current/saving deposit has led to improved deposit cost, which by CY16 reduced to 3.2% compared to 3.8% in CY15.
In CY16, bank displayed impressive earning performance registering growth of 9.6%YoY highest amongst IGI coverage banking stock (ex-NBP). However, in CY17 we believe BAHL scrip performance may languish due to weaker earnings outlook. In CY17 we estimate bank’s earnings to drop by 11%YoY to PKR 7.2bn (PKR 6.5/share) as against PKR 8.1bn (PKR 7.3/share) recorded in CY16. Despite weaker earnings outlook, that bank, the bank holds multiple of positives to generate organic growth in long-term, which would help the bank sustain ROE of ~17%.
FINANCIAL RESULT FOR THE HALF YEAR ENDED 30/06/2017
(UNCONSOLIDATED) PROFIT/LOSS BEFORE TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 7,666.975
(UNCONSOLIDATED) PROFIT/LOSS AFTER TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 4,559.820
(UNCONSOLIDATED) EPS = 4.10
(CONSOLIDATED) PROFIT/LOSS BEFORE TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 7,699.697
(CONSOLIDATED) PROFIT/LOSS AFTER TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 4,574.266
(CONSOLIDATED) EPS = 4.11
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